Looking Ahead at 2025

How Can Pakistan Navigate Trump?

Date: January 3, 2025

Hassan Akbar
Pakistan Fellow at Wilson Center

Pakistan’s approach to a second Trump presidency should be based on a sobering assessment of the state of bilateral relations over the past four years and the factors likely to influence it in the future. Since the end of the war in Afghanistan, Pakistan has found itself less of a priority in Washington. The result has been a tentative relationship. The United States, preoccupied with managing its strategic competition with China and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, has sought to downgrade its level of engagement with Pakistan to middle-management, focusing on its principal concerns – counter-terrorism, strategic stability and China. Islamabad has sought to keep itself relevant by engaging on some US concerns, focusing on trade and multilateral support while advocating for a restart in high-level engagement, without much success.

Despite the eagerness to reinvigorate the bilateral relationship which precedes every incoming US administration, it remains highly unlikely that there will be any substantial change under a second Trump administration. The long-term US view on Pakistan is increasingly a product of the growing bipartisanship on China as strategic competitor and India as strategic partner. Pakistan has consistently maintained that it is not in any ‘camp’ when it comes to China-US competition, seeking to navigate global power competition by treading delicately between Beijing and Washington. However, while those who work on Pakistan in the administration may hold a more nuanced view, Capitol Hill and the wider policy community remains convinced that Pakistan is too deeply engaged with Beijing.

The United States has also declared that it seeks to support India’s rise as net security provider in the wider Indian Ocean Region. Consistent political support for India’s strategic objectives and the transfer of advanced technology to India have direct implications for Pakistan’s own national security.

These long-term trends are likely to deepen under Trump. 

Pakistan’s relevance in Washington and other key capitals is equally predicated on its ability to demonstrate political and economic stability at home. Progress on both has been lacking. How far President Trump, a critic of U.S. meddling in the domestic politics of other countries, will go to influence Pakistan’s domestic political outcomes remains an unknown, despite early signals from a few nominated officials. This will be a key factor likely to influence the tone and tenor of the bilateral relationship early on.

Despite divergences on long-term strategic direction, Pakistan retains its importance due to its size, capabilities and location. Any incoming US administration will have to engage with Pakistan during its tenure. For Islamabad, the best approach going forward would be to agree on a minimum common agenda with the incoming administration, one that addresses areas of interest for both sides such as counterterrorism, strategic and regional stability, trade and investment, multilateral support, climate change and energy. Within each area, Pakistan should privilege working-level discussions with the United States over seeking high-level photo opportunities that seldom translate into substantial progress. This will help manage expectations on both sides and ensure that enough engagement mechanisms exist to absorb any negative pressures that may emanate because of any unforeseen developments.