Looking Ahead at 2025
Pakistan’s Future is Young, But Is It Losing Its Greatest Opportunity?
Date: January 3, 2025
Meeran Jamal
Youth, Employability and the Incessant Brain Drain
Pakistan’s future is young with 60% of its population under 30 years. This demographic provides the country with a crucial opportunity to harness the potential of its youth and capitalize on the benefits of a demographic dividend. Yet, every year, approximately 1.5 million young individuals enter the labour force, only to face an employment crisis due to lack of opportunities. Unemployment, especially among those aged 15 to 35 years, exceeds 50%, creating a stark aspirational gap. Given the limited prospects in Pakistan, many of these young people end up seeking opportunities abroad.
Workforce migration surged significantly by 194% between 2020 and 2024, amounting to 1.3 million migrants (excluding asylum seekers, and students pursuing work after education abroad). In the 11 months of 2024 alone, 663,186 individuals left Pakistan, and may surpass 2023’s record of 862,625 migrants by the end of the year. Migrating for better opportunities is often a net positive for individuals and their households, but the concern lies in a worrying cumulative brain drain for the country. 42% migrants in 2024 identified themselves as highly qualified and skilled professionals, including accountants, doctors, nurses, pharmacists, engineers, and professors. The majority of these migrants is likely to fall within the youth demographic, leading to a substantial loss of human capital in Pakistan.
This brain drain is driven by deeper structural issues beyond joblessness. A prolonged polycrisis has cast a shadow over the country’s future – with a complex mix of economic, political, and environmental challenges. Stagflation and tax hikes have eroded purchasing power among salaried cohorts, and worsened poverty and inequality among those dependent on social protection mechanisms. Political instability and continuous institutional breakdowns have weakened governance, diminished meritocracy, repelled foreign investment, and left gaping deficits in public services. Furthermore, catastrophic climate induced disasters exacerbate these challenges, pushing millions below the poverty line and diminishing human development. Young individuals remain disproportionately affected by these challenges, bearing the brunt of multidimensional deprivations and leaving skilled professionals feeling undervalued and unwelcome in their own country.
This growing trend carries profound implications for Pakistan. The brain drain wastes public investments in education and skill building, as the benefits are reaped by other countries. The departure of such skilled workers hinders innovation, productivity, and delivery of essential services in critical sectors such as technology, health, and education. Some argue that the silver lining of workforce migration is remittances sent from abroad, which annually bolster foreign reserves and enhance household incomes, often lifting entire communities out of poverty. However, in the context of Pakistan’s current polycrisis – and economic difficulty across the globe – the capacity of remittances to lift people out of poverty is diminishing. Another argument is that diaspora contributes to knowledge transfers, trade, and potential foreign direct investment (FDI). This argument fails to answer whether remittances, trade, and FDI ever compensate for the loss in human capital, caused by the exodus of the country’s brightest minds. The answer is a definite no.
Pakistan must act fast and decisively before this demographic dividend slips away. The country needs a new social contract between the State and citizens, especially youth, to rebuild trust and restore faith in the State machinery. Taking steps to reform governance are well overdue, as well as stabilizing the economic environment so that household incomes and assets are not undermined each year. But most importantly, enabling a future of possibility for young people, through assisting private sector job creation, and honing employable skills through university curricula and training. There have been attempts to provide microcredit to encourage entrepreneurship, with varying levels of success. However, the vast multitude of youth are still enrolled in traditional disciplines, no longer needed by businesses and industry. Developing a robust market driven skill-development plan for emerging sectors like artificial intelligence, blockchain, data analytics, or renewable energy can prepare young people to compete nationally and globally. The Higher Education Commission and public universities need to urgently revamp curricula, particularly in STEM related disciplines. Pakistani decisionmakers must start reversing this trend in 2025, and help secure the future Pakistan’s young people deserve and aspire for.
