Looking Ahead

A Multipolar World Order

Date: January 8, 2026

Khurram Dastgir
Former Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs, Defence, Commerce, Energy

The U.S. National Security Strategy, released in November 2025, announced a multipolar world. The Trump administration is trying to avoid the Thucydides Trap and has decided that China is not to be confronted or contained directly. The United States has also withdrawn practically from its commitment to uphold the rules-based international order in international security as well as international trade. In an ironic reversal, China is now the principal supporter of open trade and a rules-based security order. 

A sphere-of-influence globe will begin to take shape in 2026, where the United States will assert its primacy in the western hemisphere; Europe will be contested by the European members of NATO and Russia; Israel and the UAE will attempt to influence the Middle East, including Iran; and China will not be confronted directly in the Far East. South Asia will be contested ground after Pakistan defeated a  ten-times larger India in the May 2025 conflict. A sphere-of-influence globe will be a tense and conflict-prone globe.

Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership has read the flux in international relations adroitly and is playing an admirable win-win game between global antagonists. This is a game all middle-powers will endeavour to play in 2026.

SCO is likely to be the global institution of most relevance to Pakistan. Otherwise, global institutions are on the wane. Bilateral relations will be foremost in 2026.

Pakistan’s principal foreign-policy challenges in 2026 are: (1) to establish a rules-based relationship with India on water; (2) resolve tension with Afghanistan; (3) continue its 2025 win-win strategy in international relations; and (4) eradicate terrorism decisively from its soil using both non-kinetic and kinetic means.