Critical Minerals and Pakistan in 2026

Date: January 8, 2026

Adina Wajid
Program Manager, Jinnah Institute

As Pakistan moves into 2026 with renewed global partnerships, it would be wise to sidestep strategic zero-sums between Washington and Beijing. This framing thwarts real gains in growth and development. For any substantive benefit in the critical minerals sector, outcomes must be determined less through alignment and more by extraction capacity, managing risk, and retaining value within the economy. 

As global competition over critical minerals intensifies, states with untapped reserves have come under sharper focus. In response, Islamabad has moved to foreground its critical minerals sector as a focus of economic and strategic planning. Official estimates frequently place the value of Pakistan’s mineral reserves at up to $6 trillion, much of it concentrated in Balochistan. Copper occupies a central place in this assessment: from 2028 onward, annual production is expected to reach approximately 200,000 tonnes, largely through the long-delayed Reko Diq project. Interest in Pakistan’s mineral sector, however, extends beyond copper alone.

Antimony has emerged as a resource of particular relevance. Used in batteries, semiconductors, and defence applications, it has gained importance amid restrictions on exports from China, which dominates global processing. Pakistan possesses commercially viable antimony deposits, but extraction remains constrained by an underdeveloped mining sector, persistent security concerns, and unresolved environmental and regulatory issues. External investment is therefore integral to any expansion of production.

China’s involvement in Pakistan’s mining sector predates the current moment. Saindak, near the Iranian border, has been operated by China’s Metallurgical Construction Corporation since the early 2000s, with ore processed in China. In 2024, Saindak exports were valued at $842 million. This presence is unlikely to diminish. What has shifted, moving into 2026, is the scale and visibility of U.S. engagement alongside it.

Following a stabilisation in U.S.-Pakistan relations in 2025, a series of agreements were announced. Washington pledged support for the development of Pakistan’s energy and mineral sectors. Pakistan is committed to supplying the United States with critical minerals and rare earth elements. In September 2025, Strategic Metals (USSM), a Missouri-based firm, signed a $500 million memorandum with Pakistan’s Frontier Works Organisation to establish a polymetallic refinery, and the U.S. Export-Import Bank approved $1.25 billion in financing for Reko Diq.

Much of this activity is concentrated in regions characterised by volatility. Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Gilgit-Baltistan combine difficult terrain with persistent security challenges. Islamabad has prioritised security enhancements and introduced the Balochistan Mines and Minerals Act 2025 to standardise investment frameworks. However, local communities continue to raise concerns related to environmental degradation and water scarcity. Without broader participation at the local level, mineral development is unlikely to generate sustained economic returns.