Pakistan’s Internal Security Outlook, 2026

Date: January 8, 2026

Dr Syed Kaleem Imam
Former Inspector General of Police

Pakistan enters 2026 facing a conversant yet growing internal security challenge. The resurgence of militancy, especially along the western frontier, is not only a story of cross-border spillovers; it is also the consequence of long-standing governance gaps and a feeble system that struggles to enforce the law fairly and earn public confidence. 

For families in affected districts, insecurity is not a headline; it is daily life: shuttered markets, disrupted schooling, fear on the roads, and the quiet belief that the law works differently for the powerful and the ordinary citizen. Many citizens feel aggrieved not only by militants, but by a system they experience as distant and selective.

Three myths continue to shape our national security discourse. The first is that militancy is mainly externally driven. Regional dynamics matter, but extremist violence grows fastest where internal weaknesses persist, poor governance, political exclusion, a weak criminal justice system, and the absence of credible civilian authority. The second myth is that kinetic success equals strategic victory. Operations can disrupt networks, but without prevention, rehabilitation, and reintegration, violence adapts and resurfaces. The third myth assumes stability follows force; in reality, trust, legitimacy, and due process are the real foundations of security.

Afghanistan has reshaped the operating environment. Weak border management, limited counterterrorism coordination, and the re-emergence of sanctuaries have enabled groups to regroup. India–Pakistan hostility and unresolved disputes continue to shape threat perceptions and divert attention. Globally, regional wars and geopolitical competition have helped internationalise narratives and tactics, linking local militancy to wider currents.

Political instability at home magnifies these risks, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, where violence intersects with underdevelopment, weak civilian governance, organised crime, and deep mistrust of state institutions. The Global Terrorism Index 2025 notes Pakistan’s sharp rise in terrorism since the Taliban’s return in 2021, and that western border areas accounted for over 96% of terrorist attacks and deaths in Pakistan in 2024. It also cautions, in other conflict settings, that reported human rights abuses and prolonged undemocratic governance can deepen instability and create openings for terrorist groups.

What is equally worrying is how little attention is given to deradicalisation and disengagement. Non-kinetic work, rehabilitation, reintegration, and community engagement remain scattered and underpowered. Militancy increasingly overlaps with smuggling, extortion, and illicit economies. A weakened criminal justice chain struggles to investigate, prosecute, and convict, which fuels impunity, enables elite capture, and leaves communities trapped between fear and silence. Too often, we manage crises as they erupt instead of building a long-term strategy.

From my professional and academic perspective, sustainable security requires an ethical state, one that follows due process, strengthens civilian institutions, restores trust, and treats justice as prevention. Pakistan’s choice in 2026 is simple: keep reacting, or build institutions that citizens can genuinely believe in.