Looking Ahead

Strategic Crossroads 2026

Date: January 8, 2026

Amb. Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry
Chairman, Sanober Institute

Much of what happened in 2025 has profound implications for what might happen in 2026. The most defining feature of 2025 was the military confrontation between Pakistan and India in May. Pakistan succeeded in not only defending itself against a much larger, more resourceful neighbour, but also busted the Indian falsehood that Pakistani elements were responsible for terrorism in India. The latter is now on the defensive, unsure whether to resume the military operation Sindoor that it had paused. A question being raised by analysts is whether India would attack Pakistan in 2026. It appears that India is not likely to attack Pakistan in the near future for three reasons: firstly, Indian armed forces, particularly its air force, might need time to integrate the diverse platforms it has acquired from multiple sources; secondly, there is a perception that India is facing not just Pakistan but also China; and thirdly, the international community is no longer willing to condone Indian aggression in the name of fighting terrorism without giving any evidence. Yet, it would be prudent for Pakistan to remain prepared for any desperate or surprise adventure by the Modi government.

The recent warmth in Pak-US relations is a welcome break from the nearly decade-long stalemate in America’s relations with Pakistan. However, it is well-understood in Pakistan that its relations with the US have always been transactional, and the recent bonhomie would be no exception. That said, the policymakers do welcome the opportunities for possible US investments in Pakistan, particularly in the minerals, oil, and gas sectors. Does this mean Pakistan is tilting away from China, the country the US regards as its competitor? No, it does not mean that, mainly because in this phase of international relations, cooperation and competition co-exist, and relations are mostly issue-based. Pakistan-China relations have stood the test of time, and China is likely to continue investments into the Pakistani economy, provided its security issues are addressed effectively.

One major challenge for 2026 is the continuing tension-ridden relationship with Afghanistan. The people of Pakistan have always considered Afghanistan a brotherly country. However, for the past four years, TTP has used Afghan soil to shed the blood of Pakistanis. Bilateral tensions have peaked. While Pakistan is likely to continue its diplomatic efforts to convince the Taliban regime not to provide support to the TTP, there are growing fears that Afghanistan might once again become a hub of terrorist entities, posing a danger not only for the neighbours, the region, but the entire world.

Notwithstanding the foreign policy achievements (like Pakistan’s role to help stop Israel’s genocidal war against Palestinians, Pak-Saudi strategic mutual defence agreement, outreach to friendly countries like Turkiye and Azerbaijan, and opening to Bangladesh), a much greater effort is required to put our house in order in terms of political stability, economic security, and effective law and order.

The year 2025 had infused a new spirit and self-confidence in all Pakistanis. The year 2026 should build on that and put the country on the path of human and economic security.